April 14, 2024
By Minhoo Jeong
Last September, the world experienced record-breaking temperatures, leading scholars to analyze a growing possibility of the collapse of the climate change threshold. To prevent various damages caused by climate change, it's crucial to maintain a temperature rise below 1.5°C. However, this year is expected to be the hottest on record, with temperatures projected to rise even further in 2024. Dr. Melissa Rajenby from Sersix University commented, "These signs indicate that we're entering unprecedented territory." September saw Europe and the world experiencing the hottest month on record, accompanied by natural disasters due to extreme weather events worldwide.
The '1.5°C threshold' signifies a temperature rise of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, which refers to the period between 1850 and 1900 when fossil fuel emissions began to increase. Approximately one-third of the days this year have surpassed the '1.5°C threshold'. In December 2015, world leaders agreed under the Paris Agreement to limit the global temperature rise to within 1.5°C. The collapse of the Paris Agreement threshold means a consistent temperature rise of over 1.5°C over 20 to 30 years, not just for a few days or weeks. Currently, global temperatures are approximately 1.1℃ higher than the average between 1850 and 1900. The increasing number of days exceeding 1.5°C indicates a growing proximity to the threshold.
The first recorded temperature rise above 1.5°C occurred in December 2015, just after the agreement on the '1.5°C threshold'. Since then, there have been several instances, albeit temporary, of exceeding the threshold, especially after the powerful El Niño event in 2016, which saw 75 days surpassing the threshold. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, from early this year until the 2nd of last month, there have been 86 days with temperatures exceeding 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels.
Although there is still much of this year remaining, it has already surpassed historical records in observations. The exact number of days with a temperature rise of 1.5 degrees or more is unclear due to statistical uncertainties, but there is no doubt that it has exceeded the record set in 2016. Dr. Rajenby expressed concern, saying, "The fact that the number of days exceeding the 1.5°C threshold is increasing is worrisome." The main cause of this year's temperature rise is attributed to the El Niño phenomenon. Scholars warn that the ongoing warming of global temperatures due to El Niño could accelerate even further.
There are concerns that El Niño may exceed the symbolic threshold of 1.5°C, set for limiting global warming. Professor Ed Hawkins from Reading University noted, "Observing the El Niño phenomenon in the northern hemisphere summer is unusual," adding, "The current phenomenon is shocking." Additionally, he stated, "Our Australian colleagues are particularly concerned about upcoming summer El Niños leading to natural disasters such as bushfires."
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